Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.088690 0.103029 0.119462 0.139798 0.164444 0.193541 0.230782
2025-10-05 0.068215 0.085406 0.106996 0.136482 0.176305 0.229102 0.305901
2025-10-12 0.055775 0.074494 0.099968 0.138005 0.194857 0.279208 0.418890
2025-10-19 0.045970 0.064992 0.092803 0.137879 0.212043 0.334934 0.567372
2025-10-26 0.038632 0.057509 0.086985 0.138600 0.231831 0.404476 0.780022
2025-11-02 0.031906 0.049632 0.078930 0.133866 0.241884 0.463948 1.018219
2025-11-09 0.026178 0.042277 0.070221 0.125867 0.243980 0.511603 1.275148
2025-11-16 0.022646 0.037981 0.065961 0.125271 0.261855 0.606244 1.752283
2025-11-23 0.019767 0.034317 0.062115 0.124612 0.280309 0.717055 2.424986
2025-11-30 0.017637 0.031657 0.059675 0.126461 0.306733 0.872562 3.520646
2025-12-07 0.015784 0.029206 0.057160 0.127549 0.332743 1.052868 5.124741
2025-12-14 0.013801 0.026159 0.052761 0.122793 0.340399 1.180692 6.820197
2025-12-21 0.011400 0.021952 0.045167 0.108128 0.312431 1.155668 7.568622
2025-12-28 0.010349 0.020464 0.043549 0.109422 0.339919 1.411691 11.739184
2026-01-04 0.009597 0.019506 0.043010 0.113814 0.382846 1.815154 20.287963
2026-01-11 0.008845 0.018425 0.041955 0.116445 0.422281 2.281366 35.064083
2026-01-18 0.008192 0.017471 0.041036 0.119351 0.466814 2.892204 64.232251
2026-01-25 0.007433 0.016143 0.038849 0.117261 0.487644 3.391356 106.060396
2026-02-01 0.006662 0.014674 0.035993 0.111885 0.488898 3.744072 159.907774
2026-02-08 0.006176 0.013856 0.034838 0.112572 0.525657 4.602082 317.591914
2026-02-15 0.005737 0.013093 0.033697 0.112987 0.562872 5.645357 679.372862
2026-02-22 0.005398 0.012543 0.033093 0.115471 0.617725 7.243297 1847.697517
2026-03-01 0.005072 0.011982 0.032346 0.117148 0.670857 9.197187 5875.806589